The prediction markets said that Trump was going to win in the last presidential election, and then Trump did win. For a lot of people, that was a confirmation that prediction markets were good. But for those of you who were watching the polls, they suggested that the race was a toss-up, which it was. And so the fact that Trump won didn’t necessarily mean that that particular kind of predicting was wrong. There’s a whole nest of things going on here that has started this move.
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